Saturday, 24 January 2015

Hengoed by-election

Nominations for the by-election in Hengoed near Llanelli closed yesterday, with polling day set for 19 February.

The Plaid candidate for the County Council seat is Martin Davies, while Susan Phillips is standing for Llanelli Rural Council.

Carmarthenshire County Council has not yet announced the list of all those contesting the two seats, but it is understood that Labour is fielding Penny Edwards for the County Council and Tonia Antoniazzi for Llanelli Rural. Representing People First (Siân Caiach's group) is Wynford Samuel, nephew of George Edwards who narrowly took the seat for Labour in 2012.

It is not yet known whether Ukip, the Tories or the LibDems will be fielding candidates.

Martin Davies

Martin has lived in Sandy for over 20 years and has represented Hengoed ward on Llanelli Rural Council since 2008. Martin represents the Rural Council on various outside bodies and is currently the Vice-Chairman of the Rural Council and will be invested as its Chairman in May 2015.

Martin is also a lecturer in Welsh at Trinity University and governor at Strade and Furnace Primary schools. Martin has also been a member of the successful Colliers quiz team for many years.

Susan Phillips

Born and bred in the ward, Susan was Post Mistress at Pwll Post Office for 15 years. Susan is also a voluntary music assistant at Pwll Primary School, organist at Bethlehem Baptist Chapel and a member of the Tŷ Bryngwyn Hospice Committee.


Anonymous said...

So Labour choose the late councillor's widow and the Tea Party select his nephew.

Anonymous said...

It is interesting to look at the long game in Hengoed. The County Council ward is represented by two members. 

In 2008 with Sian Caiach as one of the Plaid candiadtes. Plaid gained 628 and 516 vote. With Sian Ciach coming top of the poll. The Labour pair gained 359 and 334 votes with Keith Price Davies the current AM bringing up the rear and the Independent pair scored 270 and 217 votes.

By 2012 this effectively became a four way seat with the Labour pair scoring 338 and 253 votes, which is a small drop from the 2008 result. The new People First vote led by Sian Caiach was 337 and 261. Sian Caiach saw a drop in her personal vote of 211 votes and she was returned with a majority of 22 over her old party.

Plaid takes the biggest hit with 315 and 271 votes.

The Independents score 213 and 89 votes

This suggests that the Labour core vote in the ward is quite static and reliable. The defection of Sian Caiach has a huge impact on her vote and Plaid lose both seats.

What is also interesting is the spread of votes. The party order for the second candiate is reversed with Plaid on 271, Peolpe First on 261 and Labout on 253. Again a close spread but some way behind the top three.  

It seems that all three main contenders are able to count on a substantial core vote and the difference is made by the personalities selected by the parties. 

What will be interesting and could well be a deciding factor will be to see how well a People First candiadate  without the name Sian Caiach does on the ballot paper does. Another significant factor could be the experience  and popularity of the Plaid candidate and his ability to recover former Plaid votes who moved to People First in 2012.

Anonymous said...

The Llanelli Rural ward fought on the same day back in 2012 gives an interesting insight to what happened.
That seat elects four councillors and unfortunately CCC decided not to publish the party affiliations in the results that are recorded in the archive but a nuember of councillors stood in both seats so it is possible to deduce their party loyalties. Eight stood for the two county sests and ten stood for the
four Rural Seats

George Edward Lab County 338 Rural vote 437
Sian Caiach PF County 337 Rural vote 427
Martin Davies PC County 315 Rural vote 432
Mike Evans PC County 271 Rural vote 413
Ken Jones PF County 261 Rural vote 359
Susan Lewis Lab County only 253
Fred Roberts Ind County only 217
Heidi Jenkins Ind County 89 Rural vote 260

This suggests that even when an election is held on the same day party loyalty in Hengoed will be trumpted by the perceived strength of the candidate.

Anonymous said...

Hengoed statement of persons nominated published

Plaid, Conservative, Labour, Ukip, People First and Independent candidates selected for County and Rural District seats - No Liberal candidates.