Tuesday, 27 May 2014

More number crunching

As mentioned last week, representatives of the political parties get to scrutinise the process of verifying votes ahead of the official count, and in Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Plaid sampled 924 ballots from boxes in 13 wards from across the constituency. On that sample, Plaid won every box, and some very comfortably indeed.

Labour was also busy sampling, and they knew ahead of the count that they would be heading for third place.

One of the exceptions in the constituency was Llandovery where Ukip is believed to have topped the poll, with Plaid second and Labour third (this is a correction to the previous post which had Plaid winning in every ward).

Based on this sampling, the returns for the constituency come out at:

Plaid: 42.6%
UKIP: 28.4%
Labour: 13.2%
Tory: 8%

The official results are for the county as a whole, and figures are not published for the constituencies contained within them, but compared with the European election in 2009 the sample shows that Plaid Cymru was up 4%, Labour down 2% and the Tories saw their vote halved to 8%. Ukip put on 10%.

Unconfirmed as yet are the turnout figures for the individual wards, but overall it is believed that turnout in Llanelli was significantly lower than in Carmarthen East and Dinefwr.

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

The demographics of Llandovery have altered hugely. The area is a centre for 'downshifting' retirees mainly from England who at present regard PC as just for 'the Welsh'. There is also a large anti-wind farm vote and UKIP is opposed to wind farms. I think there are many 'green' incomers who would like PC policies if they knew what they were. The migration in from England is not going to stop, and somehow PC has to find a way of connecting with new residents.

Anonymous said...

It seems that only Carms & Caernarvonshire were sufficiently afraid of the UKIP to vote for Plaid. UKPI is a dangerous party - look how in Germany a minor party NSPAD were ignored, derided and yet over the years won a majority and the rest is history

NSPAD = NAZI = UKPI/BMP we must be afraid of dangerous nationalistic racists parties and Plsaid must not fall into the trap of ignoring the voters outside the heartland of its support

Anonymous said...

What utter nonsense; U.K.I.P. is not anything like the NAZI party, not even the B.N.P. or the other right wing splinter groups that have been springing up.

Some people are just scare mongering, in the hope it will deter people from voting from U.K.I.P. There is no justification for these wild allegations.

I am a proud Welshman (Okay I had a Welsh Father, but an English Mother) but will not vote for Plaid Cymru. They are more xenophobic than most, certainly more so than U.K.I.P. as many back anti English feelings.

Plaid Cymru's policies would ruin Wales, as they advocate independence from the rest of the U.K. and closer ties with the E.U. They are far too parochial and insular and are unlikely to have sufficient backing throughout the whole of the country to have a majority in the Welsh government.

It is the bureaucracy from the E.U. that is keeping the Welsh economy from taking off.

As for the money that the E.U. provides to Wales - most, if not all of it comes from the South East of England anyhow. If the U.K. withdrew from Europe, the money would probably still be provided, but from the U.K's coffers.

In any case, the inept Welsh government has consistently wasted the funds that the E.U. has provided. I don't whether any contributors on this blog could point to any obvious benefits to the man and woman on the street - the ordinary people.

Cneifiwr said...

Anon @18.48 Perhaps you ought to have a read of this from today's Guardian. There's your evidence.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/26/ukip-founder-alan-sked-party-become-frankensteins-monster

Anonymous said...

Anon 18:48 I quote "Plaid Cymru's policies would ruin Wales, as they advocate independence from the rest of the U.K. and closer ties with the E.U. They are far too parochial and insular and are unlikely to have sufficient backing throughout the whole of the country to have a majority in the Welsh government. "
I think that's what they call an oxymoron in the English language. And do you know that many English people vote Plaid and being Welsh by the way is not determined by your parentage its nothing to do with blood mate

Anonymous said...

Tony Blair said of UKIP this morning,"unpleasant and
nasty" I wonder how many people around the world
think the same of him,I suspect it would be billions,but it's
ok to vote Labour.

Anonymous said...

BNP not like NAZI party - rubbish - racialist fixed on race blaming immigrants for all the woes of the world - one nation one people of course meaning white, anglo saxon . So shame on you proud Welshman for not understanding history and the frightening mix of racialism that BNP / UKPI are promoting .
Jews , Muslims, West Indians, Poles etc are the enemies of BNP{ / UKPI - not similar to the rise of Nazi Germany

Anonymous said...

I am sure most Welsh people would favour their families and Welsh friends over incomers - is that being racist?

Ah, Y Cneifiwr - the Guardian; that says it all really.

I see the alleged oxymoron in my earlier comment - being insular and parochial; but then I've no issue with being friendly with Europe and no issue with trading with them.I just don't want to be dictated to by their bureaucrats.

Remember, bureaucracy is the art of making the possible, impossible.

As for the last comment about the BNP - UKIP is not the BNP. Most UKIP members I've spoken to have little problem with immigration, but there is a problem with uncontrolled immigration.

Look how differently they deal with immigration in the USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

When it comes to criticism of foreigners, haven't you heard your average Welsh farm labourer speak ill of the Poles? Many Welsh people I speak to, also often express their dislike of anyone that arrives from the other side of Offa's Dyke? Don't tell me you haven't.

If you haven't heard this, then I can only conclude, there are none so blind (deaf) as those who don't want to see (hear).

As for my nationality - I live in Carmarthenshire and I am and feel Welsh ; there again is patriotism a form of racism?

Cymru am Byth (Is that a racist comment?)

Redhead said...

And when you get such an illiterate and ill-thoughtt-out justification for UKIP you know (or at least I dod) that they do not deserve votes!

Anonymous said...

No need for UKIP to do anything,it's happening already
right on the borders of the EU.History repeating itself.

Anonymous said...

Redhead, my response is neither illiterate nor ill-thought out.

I do not have to justify UKIP to you or anyone else. It is - at least the last time I read the law - a free country and I have a right to express my point of view; as indeed do you.

If all you can do is insult a contributor, it shows you have a poor ability to debate and prove your point.

Other than hearsay and anecdotal evidence, how can you state that UKIP are unworthy of the votes they received?

In years from now, history will prove you wrong. I for one, am not xenophobic, or racist. I have lived abroad amongst foreigners when I served in H.M. Forces. I like and enjoy the company of people who originate from other countries.

I again ask you to listen to the rants of some Welsh people, about the Poles who work in Carmarthenshire, at Dunbia and elsewhere in Wales. Poles who make a contribution to the economy. I've heard local farmers slagging them off. Don't talk to me about racism - just look within our own communities. Its pure hypocrisy to condemn UKIP, yet overlook how some bigoted Welsh people behave towards outsiders.

Anonymous said...

If someone in Wales wanted to vote for a truly racist
party which there is no doubt they are ,they could have
voted for the BNP,who received 7000+ votes.So as I
voted UKIP ,and described as a racists,I might as well vote for the BNP next time,then they can receive
200,000+ votes.